Monsoon Update India 2026: Rain Plays Hide and Seek?

Monsoon Update India 2026 is here. The Indian Meteorological Department says that the monsoon is currently experiencing a fourteen percent deficit. They consider this to be in the category for now. However, the monsoon deficit could increase again if the rainfall is below normal over the two weeks. On the hand we can expect more rain to come in late July.

The southwest monsoon finally covered the country on July 9, 2026. This was one day later than the expected date of July 8. The monsoon advanced slowly this year. In fact, this was the advance of the monsoon since 2021. Back in 2021, the monsoon covered the country on July 13. The Indian Meteorological Department is warning us that the active monsoon period is coming to an end. They say that the rainfall will decrease again from July 15.

Heavy rains have already started causing damage in several states; for instance, a Ghaziabad road recently collapsed after torrential rain, with a car and scooter falling into the ditch it created. 

When and how did the monsoon cover the whole country? 

This year the monsoon hit Kerala on June 4, which is three days after June 1. The monsoon was moving slowly for almost two weeks after that. The month of June 2026 was really dry; it was the driest June in 126 years. From June 1 to June 30, the country got 99.5 mm of rain, which is 40 percent less than what is normal.

Then the monsoon came back strong in the first week of July. The country got 42 percent less rain than normal from July 1 to July 8. The monsoon covered the country by July 9; it even covered the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab at a fast pace.

The monsoon was moving slowly this time; it was the slowest since 2021. This is not something new; it has happened before. The monsoon has covered the country sometime between June 16, like it did in 2013, and August 15 like it did in 2002, since 1971.

How much rain fell? How much did the deficit decrease? 

The country got a total of 205 mm of rain between June 1 and July 9. Usually the country gets 233.1 mm of rain during this time. So the country got 14% rain, than usual by July 9. To compare, let’s look at the improvement: 

The rainfall deficit went down a lot; it was 40%. Now it is 14%, after just nine days. But the rainfall deficit is not the same; the rainfall deficit is spread out really unevenly in different areas. 

• East and Northeast India saw a 38 percent reduction.
• Bihar had a 53 percent reduction.
• Jharkhand had a reduction of 43 percent.
• Punjab experienced a 37 percent reduction.
• Uttar Pradesh had a 27 percent decrease.
• The South Peninsula had a reduction of 15 percent.
• The North-West had a 9 percent decrease.

Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha got a little less rain than usual. These places, like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, got 3% more rainfall. This is good for Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha. Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha received 3% rainfall. 

What is an IMD warning? 

The monsoon season is finally coming to an end. The active part of the monsoon is now said to be IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra.

From July 10th the monsoon will start to get weaker, and this will keep happening for the next two weeks.

The monsoon will get weaker because it will start to move

IMD scientist and head of the Climate Monitoring Group, OP Sreejith, said the thing.

He said that the monsoon will start to get weaker from July 10.

We will get rain than usual from July 15 onward.

The monsoon season is really slowing down now.

The monsoon will bring rain to the country from July 15 onward.

Which states will be affected the most? 

The weather forecast says that Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana will get little rain for the next 5 to 7 days.

On the other hand, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, and the Northeast will continue to get rain.

The Indian Meteorological Department had said that the rainfall in July 2026 will be below normal, which means it will be than 94 percent of the usual amount.

The Indian Meteorological Department also said that the entire monsoon season, which is from June to September, will get 90 percent of the rainfall because of El Niño.

Is a 14% rainfall deficit scary? 

A shortfall of 14 percent is considered normal by the IMD.

The IMD says rainfall between 19 percent and 19 percent above normal is normal.

If rainfall falls 20 to 59 percent below normal, it is called “deficient.”

Rainfall that is 60 percent or less of normal is called scanty.

A meteorological drought is declared when an area gets less than 75 percent of its normal seasonal rainfall.

This type of drought has two categories:

• Moderate drought: 26%-50% below
• Extreme drought: > 50% reduction

How has it impacted Kharif crops? 

The delay in monsoon and drought in June has directly affected the sowing of Kharif crops.

• The farmers have sown crops on 350.85 lakh hectares of land far away.
• This time the cultivation is happening on an area compared to last year, which is 91.95 lakh hectares less.
• Cotton and soybeans are the crops that have been affected the most; cotton and soybeans are really struggling.

The Union Agriculture Minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, says that farmers should plant crops that need a lot of water, such as maize and millet and mung beans.

The government of India has stored a lot of seeds, 1.75 lakh quintals, for the farmers to use.

They are keeping an eye on Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s plan in 262 areas that are sensitive.

Why is the monsoon the slowest since 2021? 

The delay this year was due to three main reasons:

• The monsoon is not doing well because of winds that blow across the equator.
• We need a monsoon trough to get a lot of rain, but it is moving really slowly.
• El Niño is very strong. This is making the monsoon weaker.
• When El Niño is strong, it always makes the monsoon weaker. That is what is happening now with the monsoon.

The IMD said rainfall from July 10 will reduce, and from July 15 it will be below normal. Which is to say:

• The deficit of rain has gone down from 40 percent to 14 percent in one week, but the rain deficit could go up again if we do not get enough rain in the next two weeks.
• This is a problem for Kharif crops, especially in areas that have already gotten less rain than they usually do.
• The water in the reservoirs is not as much as it was last year.
• S&P Global Ratings said that if the monsoon is weak, it will affect the people in areas, the money farmers make, and the prices of things, which is inflation of the Kharif crops and the monsoon.

But there is a chance of rain again towards the end of July, which is the silver lining.

What is the weather really like? 

• The good news is that by July 9 the monsoon had covered the country. The deficit actually fell to 14 percent from 40 percent in one week. We also had rainfall in Central India.
• The bad news is that since July 10 the rainfall has been going down. In fact the rainfall is expected to be below normal after July 15. Now East India is at a deficit of 38 percent. Also, Kharif sowing is down by 9.2 million hectares. The threat of El Nino is still there.

The IMD at present said a 14% deficit is in the “normal” category, but due to less rainfall in the next two weeks, the deficit may again go up.